Trends in COVID-19 mortality in Brazil from 2020 to 2025: monthly time series analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5327/prmj.929Keywords:
COVID-19, mortality, time series studies, pandemic, BrazilAbstract
Purpose: To analyze trends in COVID-19 mortality in Brazil between 2020 and 2025 through monthly time series analysis. Methods: This retrospective ecological study was based on public data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, obtained from the Coronavirus Panel and OpenDataSUS platforms. All deaths confirmed by laboratory, clinical-epidemiological, or imaging criteria were included. Data were organized using Python (v.3.11) and presented in comparative annual charts. Results: Distinct epidemic waves were identified: the first in 2020, peaking in June; the second in 2021, associated with the P1 variant; and the third in 2022, driven by the Omicron variant, which resulted in a higher number of cases but lower lethality. In 2023, a marked decline in deaths was observed, with August showing the lowest mortality rate, while in 2024 and 2025, deaths remained at low and stable levels. Conclusion: The interaction between viral variants, non-pharmaceutical interventions, hospital capacity, and especially mass vaccination were key determinants of mortality patterns. Evidence-based public policies, continuous epidemiological surveillance, and equitable access to healthcare are essential to mitigate the future impact of public health emergencies.
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