Temporal analysis of tuberculosis cases in Belém-PA from 2013 to 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5327/prmj.927Keywords:
tuberculosis, epidemiology, time series studies, epidemiological monitoring, public health, social determinants of healthAbstract
Purpose: To analyze the time series of tuberculosis cases in Belém (PA) from 2013 to 2023, identifying trends, annual variations, and seasonal patterns. Methods: Observational, ecological, and descriptive study with a quantitative approach. Data were obtained from the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (DATASUS) through the Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN), referring to new tuberculosis cases in Belém (PA) between 2013 and 2023. Population estimates were retrieved from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Analyses included segmented linear regression (Joinpoint Regression), time series decomposition, and statistical tests comparing the pre- and post-pandemic periods of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Results: A relative stability was observed between 2013 and 2019, followed by a decline in 2020–2021, coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic, and a subsequent recovery in 2022–2023. The greatest decrease occurred between 2019 and 2020, likely reflecting case underreporting due to COVID-19 and the reallocation of health services. Seasonal analysis showed a higher concentration of cases between March–June and August–October, with reductions in December–January, associated with epidemiological and cultural factors. Conclusions: Tuberculosis remained at high levels throughout the analyzed period, without a sustained downward trend, highlighting its link to social determinants and weaknesses in epidemiological surveillance. These findings reinforce the need for intersectoral strategies, strengthening of primary health care, and continuous surveillance—even during health crises—to prevent setbacks in disease control.
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